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Future Directions for the Mineral Sector
The following
collection of information is provided as a resource of potential future
global trends that are, or may emerge in society. These have been prepared
by a variety of organizations each and include overviews of the current
world situation, future scenarios that may emerge based upon existing
world social and environmental trends, and strategies for the future development
of industrial society.
The inclusion of the various scenarios on this page are
in no way an indication of their validity, or potential to arise, they
are intended simply to promote reflection and thought on what may come
to pass, allowing people and organizations to plan and develop strategies
for the future. Though little of this information is addressed directly
to the mineral industry, they have significant implications. Sections
of greater relevance are specifically noted.
| Current World Situation
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- State
of the World - Worldwatch Institute - An annual analysis of
the global sustainable challenges. The cuurent State of the World
2002 features chapters on climate change, farming, toxic chemicals,
sustainable tourism, population, resource conflicts and global
governance, with a special focus on the forthcoming World Summit
on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa.
- Vital
Signs - Worldwatch Institute - An annual review of sustainable
development trends through extensive use of statistical charts,
graphs and tables.
- EarthTrends
- World Resources Institute - A comprehensive environmental information
portal containing databases, maps, country profiles, and features
on various key global issue areas such as: energy and natural
resources; environmental governance and institutions; and economics,
business and the environment.
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| Possible Future Scenarios
Based on Existing Trends |
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A number of organizations have conducted future casting, examining
the future based on existing trends. These studies generally examine
at least three possible scenarios: a worst case, a 'business as
usual' case and an optimistic case. The scenarios provide a range
of views as to how society and industry may evolve, identifying
existing and emerging opportunities and risks that in turn provide
people and organisations the opportunity to develop effective strategies
to respond to these.
- Learning
from the Future: Alternative Scenarios for the North American
Mining and Minerals Industry (Adobe PDF 1.1MB) - Scenarios
Work Group, MMSD-North America regional group, 2002.
The MMSD-North America Scenarios Work Group has developed a set
of four scenarios that bracket the likely futures to be faced
by the North American mining and minerals infsdustry and its related
communities of interest over the next 15 years. The scenarios
identify and discuss the risks and opportunities; the issues,
challenges and areas of consensus and disagreement; and propose
potential mechanisms and changes needed to adjust mining and minerals
related policy, practices, behaviour and infrastructure.The four
scenarios have been labelled: New Horizons; Phoenix Rising; Perfect
Storm; and Money Divides.
- Tellus
Institute - The Tellus Institute
is a non-profit organization involved in research, consulting,
and communication to address policy and planning issues in areas
such as energy, water, waste, and land use. To mark the Institutes
25th Anniversary in 2001, they published the book, Halfway
to the Future: Reflections on the Global Condition (Adobe
PDF 938KB). The book reviews the evolution of global sustainability
issues such as climate change, water, waste, and globalization,
and how these issues have contributed to the current social and
environmental situtation. The final chapter, 'Our Grandchildren's
Bequest', examines three scenarios for the future based on current
world trends. Conventional Worlds, a scenario that evolves gradually,
governed by today’s dominant values and trends. A second option,
Fortress Worlds, depicts a future in which crisis, conflict and
environmental degradation lead to a breakdown of civilization.
Finally, Great Transitions, a future that results from responses
to the sustainability challenge based on new values and humanistic
forms of social and economical organization.
- WBCSD
Future Scenarios - The World
Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) has been
involved in developing future scenarios to assist better corporate
decision-making and foster the collective action needed to attain
sustainability. In particular, a summary of the report 'WBCSD
Global Scenarios 2000-2050: Exploring Sustainable Development'
(Adobe PDF 845KB) released in 1997 explored three different broad
future scenarios for world development, FROG!, GEOpolity and Jazz.
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| Strategies for the
Future |
- Eco-Economy:
Building an Economy for the Earth - Lester R. Brown, Earth
Policy Institute, 2001. The book is available for download in
Adobe PDF. Chapter 6 Designing a New Materials Economy is of particular
relevance to the mineral industry.
- Natural
Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution - Paul
Hawken, Amory Lovins, & L. Hunter Lovins, Rocky Mountain
Institute, 1999. Natural capitalism is a new business
model that enables companies to fully realize these opportunities.
This involves four major shifts: radically increase the
productivity of natural resources; shift to biologically
inspired production models and materials; move to a "service-and-flow" business
model; and reinvest in natural capital. The concept of advanced
resource productivity, of importance to the minerals industry,
is expanded upon.
- Worldwatch
Paper 144. Mind Over Matter: Recasting the Role of Materials in
Our Lives - Nations and businesses are discovering ways to
use materials more intelligently to provide the goods and services
people want using much less wood, metal, stone, plastic, and other
materials. By reducing wasteful use, and by steering production
toward durable goods that are easy to reuse, remanufacture, or
recycle, a few pioneering firms are recasting the role of materials
in our lives. Some businesses have even shifted out of manufacturing
and become purveyors of services, dramatically lowering levels
of materials use.
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| Industrial Ecology |
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Industrial Ecology, a concept that has been introduced and evolved
rapidly over the last decade, is an attempt to model industrial
system using natural cycles. The model endeavours to close the industrial
process loop, reducing inputs to industrial processes, maximising
outputs of value while utilising any remaining waste streams as
inputs to new processes.
One of the most well known applications of the Industrial Ecology
approach has been at the Kalundborg
Industrial Estate in Denmark. The Industrial Ecology concept
continues to evolve and is viewed as offering a promising contribution
to minimising or eliminating the impacts of industrial society upon
the environment.
The following material provides an introductory overview:
- Industrial
Ecology - Center of Excellence for Sustainable
Development - The Industrial Ecology theory aims to incorporate
the closed cyclical patterns of resource flow evident in natural
ecosystems into the design of industrial production processes
so that they will work in unison with natural systems.
- National
Material Metrics for Industrial Ecology - Iddo K. Wernick
and Jesse H. Ausubel, The Rockefeller University, 1995. - Research
paper focused on the development of a metrics (measurement) system
for material flows to both aid decision-making and allow environmentally
important industries such as mining, forestry, agriculture, construction,
and energy production to be evaluated based on their material
requirements and outputs.
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